- Friday, April 14th, 11:00 a.m. in Woodburn 218
Title: "Power Sharing and Foreign Direct Investment in Post-Civil War States: Inadvertent Signals as Positive Externalities"
Author: Carolyn Hartzell (Gettysburg College), with Joshua Alley (Texas A&M)
Discussant: Cyanne Loyle
Abstract: We hypothesize that countries that adopt extensive power-sharing measures as part of an agreement to end a civil war will see higher levels of FDI in the years following the end of the conflict than those countries that do not adopt such measures. Larger FDI inflows are a positive externality, an unintended consequence of power-sharing agreements designed to stabilize the post-conflict environment by addressing feelings of insecurity and exclusion on the part of warring groups. Although the parties that agree to power-sharing measures as part of a civil war settlement do not do so in order to attract FDI to the country, our theory identifies institutional and informational features associated with power-sharing settlements that reduce foreign investors’ perceptions of political risk. Peace agreements that include a range of power-sharing measures thus serve as inadvertent signals to foreign capital. We test the validity of this claim using data on post-conflict FDI in 43 states for 1970-2006. Accounting for the potential for non-random selection into power-sharing agreements, we find that extensive power sharing increases FDI inflows.
Caroline Hartzell is a Professor in the Political Science Department and was the founding director of the College's Globalization Studies program at Gettysburg College. Her research focuses on cross-national civil war settlements and the effects institutions, both domestic and international, have on social conflict. She has published numerous journal articles on the effects that power-sharing settlements of civil wars have on the duration and quality of the peace, as well as co-authored and co-edited books on those topics. She is the author (with Matthew Hoodie) of Crafting Peace: Power Sharing Institutions and the Negotiated Resolution of Civil Wars (Penn State University Press 2007) and articles in Journal of Conflict Resolution, International Organization, Journal of Peace Research, World Politics, and other outlets. She also edits the journal Conflict Management and Peace Science. More information about her work can be found at http://www.carolinehartzell.com/.
- Friday, March 3rd, 11:00 a.m. in Woodburn 218
Title: "Selling a Deal: Economics, Security, and Individual-level Preferences for Trade Agreements"
Author: Katja Kleinberg (Binghamton University, SUNY), with Matthew DiGiuseppe (University of Mississippi)
Abstract: Empirical research on the determinants of individual-level support for trade liberalization has focused almost entirely on the economic effects of trade. Yet international relations scholarship has long recognized that commerce also has a variety of security implications. While economic arguments are ubiquitous in public debates over trade, security concerns are raised more infrequently. Our goal is to contribute to our understanding of the role of competitive framing, a hallmark of democratic politics, in foreign policy public opinion. In this study, we ask two questions: First, to what extent do expectations about the security implications of trade affect individual-level attitudes toward trade agreements? Second, does framing debates over trade agreements in security terms influence how heavily individuals weigh economic costs and benefits? Put another way, once debates over a trade agreement move beyond jobs and growth, does security trump economics? We employ an original experiment embedded in a conjoint survey to investigate the relative impact of a variety of economic and security considerations on respondents’ support for trade. Our findings suggest that security framing undermines the appeal of some, though not all, economic arguments for trade liberalization among our respondents. To the extent that these results hold more broadly, policymakers and other elites may have some, albeit limited leeway in shaping public opinion on international commerce.
Katja Kleinberg is Associate Professor of Political Science at Binghamton University, SUNY. Her research interests include economic interdependence and interstate conflict, public opinion on foreign policy, and international political economy. Her work has been published in Journal of Politics, International Organization, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, and other journals. More information about her work can be found at http://www.katjakleinberg.com/.
- Friday, February 17th, 11:00 a.m. in Woodburn 218
Title: "Without a Trace: Enforced Disappearance as a Strategy During Armed Conflict"
Author: Cyanne Loyle
Discussant: Will Winecoff
Abstract: While recent attention in conflict studies has been drawn to government and rebel targeting of civilians through discriminate and indiscriminate tactics, little work has directly investigated the use of enforced disappearance—the secret abduction and/or imprisonment of an individual followed by a refusal to acknowledge the person’s fate or whereabouts. This behavior is a form of repression used by both states and rebel groups which can have devastating post-conflict effects on the families of the disappeared and their communities. In this study, I investigate the tactic of enforced disappearance during armed conflict using subnational data on over 1,800 disappearances during the civil war in Nepal between the government and the Maoists. I demonstrate that the use of this tactic varies according to the state reach in a given area. In particular, I find that enforced disappearances are more likely in areas of conflict where the state has little formal presence or ability to gather intelligence. This finding has important implications for the prevention of disappearance as a strategic tool during armed conflict.
Cyanne Loyle is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Indiana University and the 2016-17 Leonard and Sophie Davis Fellow for the Prevention of Genocide at the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the United States Holocaust Museum. Her current work focuses on transitional justice adopted both during and after armed conflict. Her research has been published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Human Rights, Conflict Management and Peace Science, Journal of Peace Research, and other outlets. More information about her research can be found at http://www.cyanneloyle.com/.
- Friday, December 9th, 11:00 a.m. in Woodburn 218
Title: "Shocks and ripples: the on-going effects of the financial crisis on British elections"
Author: Jane Green (with Chris Prosser)
Abstract: Traditional models of economic voting have examined the short run effects of the economy on the vote, typically the effect of economic performance in the year leading up to an election. In this paper we show that the effects of economic shocks can last considerably longer, in our case two general elections, five years apart.Using British Election Panel study data between 2005 and 2015 we show how the financial crisis of 2008 impacted on vote choices in the 2015 general election. Our analyses reveal how economic voting harmed the Labour party in 2015 through two routes: (i) via the new blame apportioned between 2010 and 2015 onto the earlier Labour government, and; (ii) via the continued direct effect of pre-2010 general election economic evaluations on 2015 vote choices. Furthermore, we show how the weaker partisan attachments of 2010 and 2015 enabled this economic shock to exert a particularly large and long-lasting impact, and why the fracturing of the party system meant the classic reward-punishment model was altered. Rather than benefit the Conservatives, the effect of long-term economic punishment against Labour benefitted the UK Independence Party in 2015. This paper demonstrates the importance of political and electoral context for understanding the impacts of economic voting, and also that economic shocks can – under certain circumstances – have long-lasting electoral consequences.
Jane Green is Professor of Political Science in the Cathy Marsh Institute for Social Research and the Politics Discipline Area at the University of Manchester. She is a Co-director of the 2015 British Election Study as part of the Manchester-Oxford-Nottingham leadership team, funded by the ESRC (see www.britishelectionstudy.com).
Jane is author (with Will Jennings) of The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Voters, forthcoming with Cambridge University Press. She is also writing a book on the 2015 British general election as part of the 2015 British Election Study team. More information regarding her work can be found at http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/jane.green/.
- Friday, December 2nd, 11:00 a.m. in Woodburn 218
Title: "Who Lobbies for Investment Policy Change? Leveraging Event Data to Uncover Policy Influence"
Author: Sarah Baurle Danzman
Abstract: What are the constellation of preferences and processes that lead to the liberalization of domestic laws governing foreign investment, and how do they vary across time and space? I argue shifting configurations of regulation and promotion of foreign investment is the result, in part, of changes in the policy preferences of economic elite. Large, politically powerful firms may block economic liberalization when they have sufficient privileged access to debt financing, but they may advocate for regulatory reform when these channels of privilege narrow. Consequently, rather than herald their relative decline, liberalizing reforms may further entrench powerful economic elites who have the power resources necessary to adapt to changing local and global economic conditions. I leverage event data to explore patterns of firm lobbying over investment laws, relevant executive decrees, and changes to regulatory frameworks. My outcome variable, Investment Regulation, comes from two sources. First, using a historical collection of FDI-related domestic legal instruments, I code the signing date of all known foreign investment laws and decrees globally since 1970. Second, I use UNCTAD’s dataset on all FDI regulatory changes since 1992 to isolate and measure substantively meaningful administrative changes to FDI regulatory policy. I then use the Global Database on Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) to gather evidence of cooperative and conflictual interactions between governments and key societal actors – business organizations and labor unions – in the time periods surrounding regulatory changes. These data provide more direct evidence that firms lobby for FDI liberalization when financing constraints become more binding, and probe how variations in domestic political institutions influence the ability of business groups to obtain their preferred policy outcome.
Sarah Bauerle Danzman is Assistant Professor of International Studies at Indiana University Bloomington. Her primary field of interest is the political economy of international investment and finance. She researches how domestic and multinational firms influence and adapt to investment regulation, and how rules governing capital shape global networks of ownership and production. Her work has appeared in Perspectives on Politics and International Interactions. More information about her work can be found at http://www.sarahbauerledanzman.com/.
- Friday, October 28th, 11:00 a.m. in Woodburn 218
Title: "Armed Group Organization in Collapsed States"
Author: Will Reno
Are 21st century wars amidst state collapse distinct from twentieth century civil wars? This research addresses variations in how armed groups organize their relations with surrounding communities in the context of conflict in collapsed states. The argument here is that multi-sided symmetrical irregular warfare in a context of extensive social fragmentation reflects the politics of the pre-conflict state prior to the collapse of central authority. This research traces how this environment creates obstacles to the formation of socially encompassing and mobilizing armed groups. Yet some armed groups appear in this context that are able to assert their own guiding narratives and organizational codes. This investigation into these variations in armed group autonomy and capacity to design their relations with surrounding communities points to the importance of patterns of pre-conflict clandestine commercial activities and the status of communities in pre-conflict patronage hierarchies. This research draws from research in Iraq and Somalia and broader comparisons with contemporary and historical conflicts.
William Reno is a Professor of Political Science and Director of the Program of African Studies at Northwestern University. He is the author of Corruption and State Politics in Sierra Leone (Cambridge 1995), Warlord Politics and African States (Lynne Rienner 1999), and Warfare in Independent Africa (Cambridge 2011) and numerous other works on the politics of conflict and the organization of armed groups in failed states. More information about his research is available at http://www.willreno.org.
- Friday, October 7th, 11:00 a.m. in Woodburn 218
Title: "Power to the People: The Politics of Electricity Service Provision and Citizenship in Africa"
Author: Lauren MacLean
Discussant: Tim Hellwig (IU Political Science)
Social scientists assume the existence of a social contract binding citizens to states: as a state provides citizens with security and basic services, people respond by paying taxes, obeying laws and engaging politically as loyal citizens. However, we know little about how the social contract works in weak states, when services may be absent or low-quality. Moreover, private and nonprofit organizations increasingly provide services in developing countries, either because public organizations lack the capacity to do so, or because of donor pressures to privatize. Despite possible unintended and negative implications for: citizen support for the state, tax payment, law compliance, voter turnout, and civic engagement, donors are rapidly pushing for nonstate organizations to provide services like electricity. This study examines two core questions: 1) What is the relationship between public service provision and the social contract? 2) How does variation in who provides public services (i.e., state, nonstate, or joint state and nonstate collaborations) affect citizens’ political attitudes and participation? We hypothesize that levels of support for the state and rates of political participation will be highest when public organizations provide services, and lowest when nonstate organizations provide services.
To answer these questions, the team will examine variation in electricity provision both between and within three weakly institutionalized countries: Ghana, Uganda and Kenya. This research team is well-qualified and prepared to conduct this study: all three Principal Investigators (PIs) have previous experience studying state and nonstate service provision, and collectively they have strong ties and close partnerships with government agencies, donors, the private sector, and scholars in each study country. Leveraging these relationships, the team proposes a quasi-experimental approach. The team has identified communities in each country that currently lack access to electricity but will receive service during the proposed study period in three different governance pattern variations: 1) state provision; 2) nonstate provision, and 3) collaborative provision (joint state and nonstate). The study also includes control communities with no current or expected access. Surveys will measure participants’ political attitudes and participation activities both before and after receiving services, and qualitative interviews will investigate how and why political outcomes vary systematically with the different governance patterns.
Lauren M. MacLean is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and Indiana University. She is an affiliate faculty member of IU’s Workshop of Political Theory and Policy Analysis, the African Studies Program, the Committee on Native American and Indigenous Studies, and the Center on Philanthropy. Her research interests are comparative political economy and public policy, with a focus on the politics of state formation, public goods provision, and citizenship in Africa and the U.S.
Her first book Informal Institutions and Citizenship in Rural Africa: Risk and Reciprocity in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire (Cambridge UP, 2010) won the 2011 APSA Sartori Book Award and was a finalist for the ASA Herskovitz award. She co-authored Field Research in Political Science (with Drs. Diana Kapiszewski and Ben Read, Cambridge UP, 2015) and has published widely in journals including African Studies Quarterly, Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Modern African Studies, Studies in Comparative International Development, Comparative Studies in Society and History, the International Journal of Public Administration, and World Development.
- Friday, September 9th, 2016, 11:00 a.m. in Woodburn 218
Title: "Assessing Ballot Structure and Split Ticket Voting: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment"
Author: Tiffany D. Barnes (with Carolina Tchintian and Santiago Alles)
Discussant: Armando Razo
Though a growing number of countries have implemented electronic voting, few scholars have considered the unintended consequences of such reforms. We argue that changes in ballot structure imposed by electronic voting, implemented under the exact same electoral rules, can facilitate ballot splitting. Exploiting data from three elections and a novel ballot reform in Salta, Argentina— electronic voting was incrementally introduced over multiple elections—we provide an empirical analysis of how ballot structure influences ballot splitting. We use GIS to reconstruct precinct demographics and matching to address threats to random assignment. This empirical strategy allows us to treat our data as a quasi experiment. We find that precincts casting electronic ballots under an Australian ballot, rather than the ballot-and-envelope system, have significantly higher rates of ballot splitting. Our findings imply that less complicated voting procedures can affect the composition of legislative representation and manufacture a more inclusive legislature by facilitating strategic voting.
Tiffany D. Barnes is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Kentucky. Her research is in the field of comparative politics with an emphasis on gender and politics, Latin America, and comparative political institutions.
She is the author of Gendering Legislative Behavior: Institutional Constraints and Collaboration (Cambridge University Press 2016) as well as articles in the Journal of Politics, Comparative Political Studies, Gender & Politics and other journals. More information about her research can be found at http://tiffanydbarnes.weebly.com/.