Russian Threat Perception and Nuclear Strategy in its Plans for War with China

War on the Rocks

Russian Threat Perception and Nuclear Strategy in its Plans for War with China
John Stanko
Publication Date
April 2024
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In this article, we discuss Russia’s perception of a Chinese threat and strategies to neutralize it. Our analysis provides insights into under-researched and under-reported elements of Russian grand strategy and foreign policy. We start with a short but detailed description of the Russia-China rivalry, including its origins in the Russian Far East and its future prospects. We then outline potential Russian responses to a hypothetical Chinese invasion, explaining why Russia would want to consider a nuclear option, discussing potential conventional strategic options that provide the Russian military with an alternative response, and then tying these considerations to broader Russian nuclear doctrine.